New data indicates U.S. trade is normalizing under 2025 tariff policies, though legal uncertainty may disrupt emerging stability.

CHICAGO, Dec. 12, 2025 /PRNewswire/ -- project44 today released its December Tariff Report, offering a data-driven view into how U.S. trade patterns have adjusted in the months since the sweeping "Liberation Day" tariffs took effect. While the policy shift initially triggered widespread disruption across major lanes, the latest data shows early signs of stabilization as carriers returned to predictability, and shippers adapt sourcing strategies across Asia.

New data from project44's December tariff report shows:

• Blank sailings stabilize across major U.S. trade lanes: After months of tariff-driven volatility, blank sailings have decreased sharply, now 65% below their April peak. This normalization reflects carriers regaining schedule predictability as demand patterns settle. While overall schedules are stabilizing, China-U.S. still trended 75% higher in November compared to 2024 showing this lane is still experiencing inflated blank sailings.
• Emerging trade patterns shift demand toward Southeast Asia: With U.S. imports from China still trending lower, sourcing diversification continues. Thailand saw a modest 3% year-over-year decline in November but remains up 33% year to date, while Indonesia posted a 26% increase in November and is up 34% overall in 2025. These shifts demonstrate how manufacturers and retailers are realigning supply chains in response to tariff exposure.
• U.S.–China trade remains down, but the pace of decline shows signs of easing: U.S. exports to China remain below 2024 levels, yet November's 23% decline marks the smallest year-over-year drop since January. This improvement signals early progress from recent trade discussions, offering cautious optimism that bilateral flows could continue to normalize.

These shifts reflect a redistribution of trade flows. As carriers restore capacity discipline and shippers reconfigure networks, the data points to a system finding equilibrium. Yet stability is far from guaranteed. Multiple lawsuits contesting the scope of presidential tariff authority, along with a pending Supreme Court ruling, could alter the tariff landscape again. For now, conditions are improving, but the path ahead remains tied to policy outcomes.

"With the end of 2025, 2026 is looking like an equally volatile year for global supply chains and shipping" said Dr. Sal Mercogliano, Professor at Campbell University and host, What's Going on with Shipping. "Ocean freight schedules are adjusting with a downturn in blank sailings and with shippers adjusting their sources. With the current domestic and geopolitical climate in flux, supply chains need to be on alert for rapid changes and position themselves to react quickly to meet any unforeseen circumstances that can arise."

The full December Tariff Report is available here. For more reports, follow project44's Supply Chain Insights.

About project44

project44 is the Decision Intelligence Platform for the modern supply chain. Its Multi-Agent Orchestration transforms fragmented logistics management into unified intelligence, bringing certainty to global supply chain operations. With intelligent transportation management, end-to-end visibility, yard management and last mile solutions, project44 connects over 1.5 billion shipments annually for over 1,000 leading brands in manufacturing, automotive, retail, life sciences, food & beverage, CPG, and oil, chemical & gas. Learn more at project44.com.

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